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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020
 
Satellite imagery indicates that convection has increased and 
become better organized since the previous advisory, although 
convection has waned somewhat during the past couple of hours due 
to entrainment of dry mid-level air. A 2213Z SSMI overpass showed a 
small but well-defined mid-level eye feature in the 85 GHz data and 
the latest TAFB satellite classification was T2.0/30 kt. Based on 
the improved banding features and the mid-level eye, the intensity 
has been increased to a conservative 35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt, based on a blend of TAFB 
and microwave satellite fixes. Cristina is expected to be steered 
west-northwestward throughout the forecast period along the southern 
periphery of a large deep-layer ridge that extends westward from the 
south-central and southwestern United States. The latest NHC model 
guidance has become more tightly packed around the previous forecast 
track, so only minor tweaks were made in the form of a slightly 
faster forward speed. The NHC track forecast lies close to the 
simple consensus models, which are a little south of the 
corrected-consensus model HCCA.

Cristina is expected to remain in quite favorable environmental and 
oceanic conditions for the next 72 h or so. The small inner-core 
eye-like feature and the expected low vertical shear and impressive 
upper-level outflow conditions suggest that rapid intensification 
(RI) could occur at some point occur during that time. However, 
recent entrainment of dry mid-level air into the eastern 
semicircle has eroded convection in that part of the circulation, 
and the dry air may have even penetrated into and disrupted the 
inner core itself. Given the aforementioned uncertainty in the 
structure of the cyclone, RI is not being explicitly forecast at 
this time, although the official intensity forecast is higher than 
the previous advisory through 96 h. By 120 h, significant weakening 
should be well underway when Cristina will be moving over 24-deg-C 
sea-surface temperatures. The NHC official intensity forecast 
follows the trend of the previous forecast, and there is a distinct 
possibility that Cristina could undergo RI and also become a major 
hurricane if the inner-core region has not been disrupted.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 11.2N 101.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 11.9N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 12.9N 105.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 13.9N 107.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 14.8N 109.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 15.7N 110.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 16.5N 112.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 18.1N 116.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 19.9N 121.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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