ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
900 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020
 
...ETA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, 
SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 85.2W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of South
Florida from Jupiter Inlet southward on the east coast and from
Bonita Beach southward on the west coast, including Lake Okeechobee.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.
 
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Keys
* Florida Bay
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.
 
Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches could be required for some of these areas on Saturday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 85.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through
early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected 
Sunday afternoon.  On the forecast track, the center of Eta will 
move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight, approach the 
Cayman Islands Saturday, be near central Cuba Saturday night and 
Sunday, and approach the Florida Keys or south Florida late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again overnight, with 
further strengthening likely through Sunday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
RAINFALL:  Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts 
through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 
mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern 
Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 
mm), isolated maximum totals of 25 inches (650 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys:  5 to 10 
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 
mm).

The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across 
portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of 
higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash and river 
flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of 
higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for 
the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas, and 
southern Florida.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally 
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving 
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following 
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak 
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne 
Bay...2-3 ft
Florida Keys...2-3 ft
North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas 
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and 
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative 
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over 
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
Saturday afternoon and evening.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and
they are possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and
Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern 
Bahamas, south Florida, and the Florida Keys within the watch area 
beginning Sunday. 
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the 
Florida Keys during the next couple of days.  These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
NNNN