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Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020
...ZETA RE-STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG
WINDS, STARTING IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 91.5 West. Zeta is moving toward
the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is
expected overnight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward
motion is expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta
will move over the central Gulf of Mexico overnight. Zeta is
forecast to make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this afternoon,
move close to the Mississippi coast this evening, and move across
the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely overnight and
this morning, and Zeta is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast
as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United States
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from
the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 988 mb (29.18 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...
Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River
including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today, and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday
RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to
expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast this morning
through today, eventually affecting the Ohio Valley to the central
Appalachians tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of heavy
rains near Zeta will track from the central Gulf Coast to the
Mid-Atlantic late today through late Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across
these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor
Zeta may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain across
portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula
through the early morning hours.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight
over southeastern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.