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Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...NARDA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 106.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Topolobampo to Guaymas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Guaymas
* Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 106.4 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center
of Narda will move over the Gulf of California near the coast of
northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible today. Weakening should begin
by Tuesday as Narda interacts with the mountains of western Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.  A wind gust to 44 mph (70 km/h) was recently
reported at San Blas, Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the
Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals
10 to 15 inches.

Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated
storm totals 10 to 15 inches.

Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches.

Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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