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Tropical Depression Narda Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...NARDA NEAR ISLAS MARIAS...
...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 106.4W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Topolobampo
* Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Topolobampo to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda
was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 106.4 West.  The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in
forward speed during the next couple of days.  On the forecast
track, the center of Narda will move over the Gulf of California
near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico
through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast, and Narda is expected to
become a tropical storm again later this morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the
Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm
totals 10 to 15 inches.

Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero...Additional 1 to 4 inches, isolated
storm totals 10 inches.

Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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