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Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Microwave and satellite imagery indicated that the center of Lorena
moved along the southwestern coast of Mexico overnight and this
morning.  More recent 1-minute GOES-17 visible satellite imagery
suggests that the center has now moved offshore just west of Cabo
Corrientes.  Assuming that some weakening occurred while the core
interacted with land, the initial intensity has been reduced to
60 kt for this advisory.  This is in agreement with an average of
the SAB and TAFB satellite estimates.  Although the inner core has
likely been disrupted, the overall satellite appearance suggests
Lorena remains well organized with excellent banding and very cold
cloud tops over the center.  Lorena will be traversing very warm
water to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula and the
upper-level environment is expected to be quite favorable.
Therefore, re-strengthening is anticipated during the next day or
so, and the NHC intensity forecast is closest to the higher
statistical guidance.  This foreast could be on the low side if the
inner core has remained more intact that currently thought. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Lorena this afternoon, and this data should provide a better
estimate of the current intensity and structure of the cyclone.

Recent satellite and microwave fixes show that Lorena is moving
northwestward or 320/9 kt. A west-northwesterly motion is expected
to begin later today while Lorena moves between a mid-level ridge
to the north and Tropical Storm Mario to its southwest. This
forecast assumes that Lorena will remain the dominant system if it
interacts with Mario, and will eventually turn northwestward around
the western portion of the ridge. This scenario is favored by most
of the ECMWF ensemble members, and is close the GFS ensemble mean.

Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the
exact track and intensity of Lorena, the government of Mexico has
issued a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for a portion
of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states
of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue along a
portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this afternoon.

3. Lorena is forecast re-strengthen into a hurricane and move very
close to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by
Friday afternoon, and could bring hurricane conditions to the area.
A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been issued,
and residents should heed the advice of local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 20.5N 105.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 22.2N 109.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 22.7N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 24.8N 112.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 26.8N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 28.8N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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