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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   2...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Corrected storm ID in header block

Over the past several hours the cyclone has exhibited an ongoing
increase in organization, with a curved band wrapping around the
low level center apparent in both satellite imagery and microwave
data. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt and this
is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB.

Ivo's initial motion is 285/17 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of
the cyclone will continue to steer it to the west-northwest through
much of tonight. By Thursday, a weakness is expected to develop to
the northwest of the cyclone which will result in a turn to the
northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The cyclone is then
forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the
forecast period.

Ivo will be over warm SSTs near 30C and in a moist environment for
the next 48 hours, which should favor intensification. And,
although the SHIPS guidance suggests 15 kt of northeasterly shear
may be affecting the cyclone, the satellite appearance does not
suggest that this shear is having much of impact at this time. Based
on the favorable environment, steady strengthening is forecast,
and Ivo is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. By 72 hours,
the cyclone will begin to move over much cooler waters and into a
stable air mass while undergoing increasing southwesterly shear.
This should cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become
a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. The official
forecast has been increased slightly from the previous one and is
close to the corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 15.8N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

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