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Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182019
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 26 2019

Pablo passed just to the southeast of Santa Maria island in the
eastern Azores earlier this evening and is now accelerating away
from the islands. A pair of ASCAT passes around 2100-2200 UTC showed
that Pablo was stronger than previously estimated, with maximum
winds above 50 kt. The latest SATCON estimate also supports a higher
intensity of 55 kt, so that is the value used for this advisory.

Pablo's higher intensity is not necessarily an indication of further
intensification, and its cloud pattern has actually slightly
degraded since earlier today. The NHC forecast is based primarily on
the dynamical model consensus, and nearly all of those models
indicate that Pablo will maintain its strength overnight and then
gradually weaken on Sunday and Monday. Pablo's upper-air environment
is unusually cold, and this will likely allow it to maintain
convection for longer than typically expected, given that the SHIPS
SST analysis is already down to 22 deg C. Much colder waters are
ahead, and Pablo is still forecast to become post-tropical within
36 h, though it is worth noting that a few dynamical models indicate
it could try to maintain its tropical structure over very cold
waters a little bit longer.

The tropical storm has moved to the right of and faster than the
previous forecast track and the initial motion estimate is
050/25 kt. Pablo should curve counter-clockwise around the eastern
side of the larger extratropical low it is embedded within during
the next couple of days. Most of the guidance is farther to the
right than it was before and the NHC forecast is therefore also
shifted substantially in that direction, but not as far as the
multi-model consensus. Further adjustments in the track forecast may
be required if current model trends continue.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 38.2N  22.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 41.0N  20.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 44.1N  19.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 46.0N  20.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  29/0000Z 47.1N  21.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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