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Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...KAREN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE CENTER REFORMS A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 66.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 66.0 West.  Karen has
moved erratically during the past few hours as the center has
re-formed a little to the west.  However, it is expected to resume
a motion toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) this afternoon.  A
north-northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is
forecast tonight through Wednesday night.  On the forecast track,
the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands this afternoon and then move over the western
Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional slow strengthening is expected during the
next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.  Surface observations
indicate that wind gusts to tropical-storm force are occurring over
portions of the Virgin Islands and southeastern Puerto Rico.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1005 mb
(29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area.  Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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