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Tropical Storm Fernand Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072019
100 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 95.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the northeast coast of Mexico from La Pesca to Barra del Tordo and
from Barra El Mezquital to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the
lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches or warnings could be required later today for
portions of these areas.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand
was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 95.3 West.  Fernand
is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today.  A motion toward the west-northwest is
forecast tonight and Wednesday.  This motion could bring the center
of Fernand near or over the coast of northeastern Mexico late
Wednesday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional slow strengthening is forecast before the system moves
inland.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Fernand this afternoon to provide more information on
the intensity.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (170 km)
mainly to the west of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area late tonight or early Wednesday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Squalls with
gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area
along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower
Texas coast.

RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the
Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall
may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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