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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

High resolution satellite images show that Dorian's cloud pattern
has become much better organized, with a distinct eye surrounded by
a ring of very deep convection and fair upper-level outflow.
Satellite intensity estimates, both objectivs from CIMMS and
subjective from TAFB and SAB, are in good agreement with the 100-kt
winds recently measured by a reconnaissance aircraft. This is the
intensity assigned to Dorian in this advisory.

Since the upper-level environment is already becoming more favorable
for intensification and Dorian will be over high sea surface
temperatures, the NHC forecast calls for additional intensification.
Dorian is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane as
it moves through the northwestern Bahamas and near the east coast of
the Florida peninsula in about 2 to 4 days.

The ridge over the western Atlantic appears to be already building
to the north of Dorian and is beginning to force the hurricane on a
more west-northwest track or 300 degrees at 9 kt.  The ridge is
forecast to build even more and steer Dorian on a westward track for
the next 3 to 4 days. However, the steering currents will then
weaken, and this should result in a decrease in the hurricane's
forward speed. Given the collapse of the steering currents, the
track forecast by the end of the forecast period is highly
uncertain, and any small deviation in the track could bring the
core of the powerful hurricane well inland over the Florida, keep
it near the coast, or offshore. The models have not been very
consistent from run to run in terms of the timing of the northward
turn, but there are more models now indicating that the turn could
occur near the east coast of Florida instead of well inland.  Given
this latest change, the NHC forecast has been shifted just a little
to the right at this time, but users should be prepared for
additional adjustements to the left or right depending on future
model trends.

Based on the new forecast, a hurricane warning has been issued for
poertions of the northwest Bahamas. However, given the slower
forecast speed of Dorian, it is too soon to issue and watches for
the Florida coast at this time.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a
hurricane warning is in effect. Residents should execute their
hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early
next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn
northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where
the highest surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their
hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation
zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds and rainfall is
possible in portions of Florida into next week, including the
possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the
Florida peninsula.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the
southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 25.0N  70.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 25.6N  72.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 26.2N  73.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 26.5N  75.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 26.8N  76.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 27.0N  78.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 27.5N  80.4W  120 KT 140 MPH...NEAR FL EAST COAST
120H  04/1800Z 30.0N  81.5W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

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