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BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA APPROACHING THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL SPREADING
ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 106.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 106.4 West.  Willa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected tonight.  On the forecast track,
the center of Willa will approach the coast of west-central
Mexico this afternoon, and make landfall within the hurricane
warning area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico early
this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is expected before
Willa reaches the coast of Mexico.  Rapid weakening is expected
after landfall and Willa is expected to dissipate over northern
Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).  An automated observing site on Las Islas Marias recently
reported a sustained wind of 88 mph (142 km/h) with a gust to 112
mph (180 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is occurring along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, with the highest surge likely to occur near and to the
south of where the center of Willa makes landfall.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico.  This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue over Las Islas Marias for
a few more hours, and will continue to spread into the hurricane
warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening.
Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of mainland
Mexico within the warning area through tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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