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Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
...DANGEROUS WILLA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to
12 hours for Islas Marias, and within 12 to 18 hours for mainland
Mexico. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 107.3 West. Willa is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected later this morning, followed by a faster
motion toward the northeast by this evening. On the forecast track,
the center of Willa will move near or over Las Islas Marias later
this morning and afternoon, and make landfall within the hurricane
warning area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico later
afternoon or this evening.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual
weakening is forecast today, Willa is expected to be a dangerous
major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening
is expected after landfall tonight and continuing into Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.
Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of
2 to 4 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 6 inches
possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area on Las Islas Marias this morning, and beginning this
afternoon along the coast of mainland Mexico. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring on Las Islas Marias, and tropical storm
conditions are expected later this morning along the coast of
SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. Swells should begin to affect portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.