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TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018
0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 121.5W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 121.5W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.8N 119.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.4N 116.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.2N 113.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 130SE  90SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.0N 109.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 34.4N  98.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 121.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


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