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Tropical Storm SERGIO
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 Sergio's cloud shield is well separated from the poorly organized surface circulation and is confined to the northwest quadrant. Subjective satellite intensity estimates yield a reduction in the initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory. Weakening should continue this morning due to cool oceanic sea surface temperatures and belligerent southwesterly shear, but Sergio is still expected to be a tropical storm as it make landfall in the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur. Afterward, Sergio should quickly become a depression and eventually dissipate as it traverses the rugged terrain of the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora. The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/21 kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a mid-latitude trough situated just west of the California coast. This synoptic steering pattern should steer Sergio toward the northeast at an accelerated rate of speed. A 36 hour post-tropical/remnant low point is maintained to simply represent the inland motion of Sergio. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the various multi-model consensus aids, and is basically an update of the previous package. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and Arkansas through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 26.1N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 28.2N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1800Z 33.8N 103.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN