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Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
200 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

This morning's conventional satellite presentation reveals little
change in Sergio's cloud pattern. The majority of the deep
convection resides in the north portion of the circulation with some
new bursts developing in the south semicircle. Consequently, the
initial intensity will be kept again at 60 kt, and is supported by
the TAFB and SAB Dvorak intensity estimates.

Gradual spin down of the cyclone is still expected to commence soon
as Sergio begins its trek over decreasing sea surface temperatures
and into a region of increasing southwesterly vertical shear and a
drier mid-level troposphere. Over the weekend, after quickly moving
over the central Baja California peninsula, Sergio should weaken
further over the state of Sonora in northwestern Mexico, degenerate
into a remnant low early Sunday, and is forecast to dissipate over
the Southern Plains of the United States, although this dissipation
could occur sooner, as indicated in the European global models.

The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 065/10
kt, within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by a
mid-latitude trough extending southwestward over the eastern Pacific
from the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue to
accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast over the next few
days, and approach Baja California Sur on early Friday. The NHC
forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is
close to the various multi-model consensus aids.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants will
likely be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S. Southern
Plains and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information
about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather
Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 17.5N 124.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 18.8N 122.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 20.6N 120.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 23.0N 117.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 25.4N 114.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 30.3N 107.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  14/0600Z 34.5N  97.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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