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ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 Sergio appears to have lost some strength during the past several hours. Deep convection has decreased in intensity, and the eye appears larger and more ragged in recent satellite images. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 100 kt, which is near the upper end of the satellite intensity estimates, and this could be a little generous. The hurricane is still moving westward at about 7 kt, and a slow westward or west-northwestward motion is expected for the next 12 hours. The steering currents are expected to weaken later today, and Sergio will likely drift northwestward and northward tonight and Monday. After that time, a large trough over the southwestern United States is expected to cause Sergio to move toward the northeast with increasing forward speed. The track models are tightly clustered, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. The predicted slow motion of the tropical cyclone during the next couple of days will likely cause ocean upwelling, which could result in continued slow weakening in the short term. In the longer range, the models show Sergio moving into an atmospheric environment of drier air and stronger shear and over waters cooler than 26 deg C, which should continue the weakening trend or even accelerate it. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and it is in best agreement with the IVCN and HCCA models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 14.6N 126.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 14.7N 127.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 15.0N 127.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 15.7N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 16.5N 127.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 18.5N 124.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 26.6N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN