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ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018 There has been little change in Sergio's satellite presentation today. The large eye remains well defined in visible and infrared satellite imagery, but there has been a slight warming of the surrounding cloud tops since this morning. However, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates still support an initial wind speed of 110 kt. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the primary factor regarding Sergio's future intensity will be ocean temperatures beneath the cyclone over the next few days, since the other environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable. Sergio should remain over warm waters during the next day or so, but some upwelling of cooler water is possible as Sergio slows down and makes its predicted sharp turn Sunday night and Monday, and this is forecast to cause some gradual weakening during that time. After 72 hours, cooler waters, increasing southwesterly shear, and less favorable thermodynamic conditions are likely to result in additional weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the higher statistical guidance and the consensus aids, and is very similar to the previous advisory. Sergio is moving west-southwestward at about 6 kt. The hurricane should turn westward tonight before making a sharp northeastward turn as a mid-level trough drops southward to the north of Sergio and erodes the western portion of the ridge. By early next week, Sergio should move northeastward ahead of the aforementioned trough. The track guidance is in good agreement on the overall scenario but there continues to be differences in the future forward speed of the hurricane. The guidance has once again trended a little slower this cycle, and the new NHC track lies between the previous forecast and the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.6N 124.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 14.5N 125.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 14.6N 126.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 15.1N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 15.7N 127.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 17.5N 125.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 20.0N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 24.2N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN