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Hurricane OLIVIA


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Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 06 2018

Olivia's satellite presentation is an outstanding example of an
annular hurricane with the shape of a truck tire.  In fact, the
Annular Hurricane Index on the SHIPS model output is 100. The
hurricane has a distinct clear eye surrounded by a ring of very deep
convection. The Dvorak numbers, both objective and subjective, are
T6.0, and on this basis, the winds are increased to 115 kt in this
advisory. The current annular pattern indicates that hurricane
should weaken more slowly that indicated by guidance in the short
term. Nevertheless, since the ocean is a little bit cooler along the
forecast track, very gradual weakening is forecast through the next
5 days. The confidence in the intensity forecast is not very high.

On the contrary, the confidence in the track forecast is high.
Olivia is fully embedded within the easterly flow south of a
subtropical high, and the hurricane is moving toward the
west-northwest or 290 degrees at 12 kt. The subtropical high will
persist, and most likely expand farther westward, and this flow
pattern will force Olivia to move on the general westward track or
even south of due west by the end of the forecast period. Guidance
for the next 5 days is in extremely good agreement, and the NHC
forecast in on top of the skinny guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 19.1N 129.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 19.7N 131.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 20.5N 134.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 21.2N 136.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 21.5N 139.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 21.8N 144.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 22.0N 148.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 21.5N 152.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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