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ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 The satellite presentation of Lane has improved significantly during the past several hours with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep convection and symmetric outflow. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 6.0 on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt. The hurricane is moving within an environment of light shear, and this should allow some additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, guidance suggests that a slight weakening should begin perhaps to a modest increase in shear. The NHC forecast does not weaken Lane as fast as indicated by the intensity guidance. Lane continues to move toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 kt, steered by the trade winds south of the subtropical high. Since the steering pattern is not expected to change much, this general motion should continue during the next 3 to 5 days. An expected weakening of the trades should result in a small decrease in the hurricane's forward speed. Track models are tightly clustered during the first 72 hours, and this increases the confidence in the forecast. After that time, the model agreement is not as good, resulting in a wider guidance envelope bounded by the GFS to the north and ECMWF to the south. The NHC forecast follows very closely the multi-model ensemble and the corrected consensus HCCA which are in the middle of the envelope. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 12.1N 137.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 12.5N 139.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 13.0N 141.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 13.7N 143.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 14.5N 149.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 14.8N 153.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 15.7N 156.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN