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Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018
The latest satellite imagery shows that the cyclone continues to
become better organized with a growing central dense overcast along
with ample banding features. Dvorak estimates range from 30 to 40
kt, and with the increased organization since the last advisory,
the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt.
Further intensification is likely over the next few days as Lane
encounters a conducive large-scale environment consisting of low
shear and fairly warm waters. Rapid strengthening is a distinct
possibility after the cyclone forms an inner core, which could take
a day or so given that there is still some drier air in the eastern
semicircle. The DTOPS rapid intensification index indicates a high
probability of significant strengthening over the next 3 days, with
over a 70 percent chance of a 65-kt increase during that time.
Given that some of the guidance (FSSE and HMON) are even higher than
that, this seems like a reasonable forecast and is indicated below.
The new NHC forecast is raised from the last advisory, and is close
to a blend of the previous forecast and the corrected-consensus
guidance. Continuity prevents a higher forecast, but Lane seems
destined to eventually become a category-4 hurricane like Hector.
The storm continues to move just south of due west at about 12 kt.
The subtropical ridge to the north of Lane is forecast to weaken
slightly over the next few days, which will likely steer the cyclone
to the west or west-northwest throughout the period. There is very
little spread in the guidance, with the most notable change since
the last advisory being a small shift to the southwest. The
latest official track forecast is adjusted in that direction, and is
not too far from the latest model consensus. Given the tightly
packed guidance, this appears to be a high-confidence forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 10.7N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 10.6N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 10.7N 127.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 11.0N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 11.5N 132.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 12.6N 137.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 13.9N 142.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 15.0N 146.5W 105 KT 120 MPH