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Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012018
800 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018

Tropical Depression One-E continues to maintain a cluster of strong
convection to the northeast of the center even though it is
encountering 25-40 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear.
Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range
from 25-35 kt, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt.  The
continued convection is possibly being aided by a weak upper-level
trough just west of the depression. The dynamical models forecast
this trough to move east of the depression in 24 h or less, exposing
the cyclone to even stronger shear.  Based on this, the intensity
forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in calling for
the system to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in less
than 24 h.  One small change from the previous forecast is to keep
the system an extra 12 h as a remnant low in agreement with the
dynamical model guidance.

The initial motion is 295/8.  Through its lifetime, the cyclone
should move generally west-northwestward to northwestward around the
western end of a weak subtropical ridge with a gradual decrease in
forward speed.  The new forecast track is similar to the previous
track and lies a little to the east of the consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 12.7N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 13.1N 128.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 13.7N 129.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1200Z 14.4N 129.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0000Z 14.9N 129.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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