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Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

Aircraft and radar imagery shows that the center of Gordon is
making landfall just west of the Alabama-Mississippi border.  The
radar imagery has shown an increase in convection around the center
within the past couple of hours, and Doppler velocities have
increased to 65-75 kt at about 2500 feet.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft has measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 63 kt.
These data support an initial intensity of 60 kt.  A NOAA Coastal
Marine Observing site on Dauphin Island, Alabama has recently
reported sustained winds of 49 kt with a gust to 63 kt.  Once the
center moves inland, Gordon should rapidly weaken and it is
forecast to become a tropical depression on Wednesday morning.

Gordon moved a little right of the previous forecast track this
evening, but the most recent aircraft fixes suggest the center has
jogged back toward the left. The longer-term motion estimate is
315/12 kt.  A large deep-layer ridge located over the eastern
United States is forecast to steer Gordon northwestward at a slower
forward speed during the next couple of days.  After that time, the
cyclone should turn northward, then northeastward around the
western periphery of the ridge.  The updated NHC track is again
close to a blend of the various consensus aids, but is a little
right of previous forecast for the first 24-36 hours, primarily due
to the slightly more eastward initial position.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast, where a
Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. The highest
storm surge is expected along the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama
from Biloxi to Dauphin Island tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions and storm surge will also affect portions of the
western Florida Panhandle.

2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect the western Florida
Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi,
northeastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, where totals could
reach as high as 12 inches. This rainfall will cause flash flooding
in portions of these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 30.3N  88.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 31.5N  89.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  06/0000Z 32.7N  90.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  06/1200Z 33.5N  92.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  07/0000Z 34.3N  92.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z 36.0N  93.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0000Z 38.3N  92.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0000Z 41.0N  88.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

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