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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number  65
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...FLORENCE CRAWLING WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 79.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of South
Santee River and north of Cape Lookout.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.6 West. Florence is
moving slowly toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a slow
westward motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward
the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Sunday. Florence is
forecast to turn northward through the Ohio Valley by Monday.

Radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained
winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts,
mainly to the east of the center in heavy rainbands over water.
Gradual weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland
during the next couple of days, and it is expected to weaken to a
tropical depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.  A sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a gust
to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier
in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. A sustained wind of 38 mph
(61 km/h) with a gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently reported by
a NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft
Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeast
South Carolina...an additional 15 to 20 inches, with storm totals
between 30 and 40 inches along the North Carolina coastal areas
south of Cape Hatteras. This rainfall will continue to produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and
southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of
Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches.  These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for
landslides.

A preliminary report from a cooperative observer near Swansboro,
North Carolina, indicates that more than 30 inches of rain has
fallen so far. In Newport, North Carolina, more than 24 inches of
rainfall has been measured.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue today in portions of
the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of
eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with
tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North
Carolina northeastern South Carolina today through tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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