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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number  64
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...FLORENCE SLOWLY WEAKENING JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
BUT CAUSING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 79.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.5 West.  Florence is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (8 km/h), and a turn
toward the west and northwest is expected today and Sunday.
Florence is forecast to turn northward through the Ohio Valley by
Monday.

Radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased
to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts.  Continued gradual
weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the
next couple of days, and it is likely to weaken to a tropical
depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.  A sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a gust
to 57 mph (92 km/h) was recently reported at Mercer Pier, North
Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeast
South Carolina...an additional 10 to 15 inches, with storm totals
between 30 and 40 inches along the North Carolina coastal areas
south of Cape Hatteras. This rainfall will continue to produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and
southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of
Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches.  These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for
landslides.

Newport, North Carolina reported a rainfall total of almost 24
inches as of midnight Saturday.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue today in portions of
the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of
eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with
tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today through tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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