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Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...EYE OF IRMA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 68.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the Northwestern Bahamas.

All warnings are discontinued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the
southern border with Haiti
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as
Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma.  A Hurricane
Watch will likely be required later today for portions of southern
Florida and the Florida Keys.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 68.3 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the
next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center should pass
north of the coast of Hispaniola later today, be near the Turks and
Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by this evening, and then be near
the Central Bahamas by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb (27.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area
near and to the north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

Water levels around Puerto Rico should subside today.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti today,
with tropical storm conditions beginning in the next few hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in
the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later
today with tropical storm conditions expected within the next
several hours.  These conditions will spread into the Central
Bahamas by Thursday night or early Friday.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area in Cuba by Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba Thursday night.
Huricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday
night and Saturday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...An
additional 2 to 4 inches.
Southeast Bahamas, Central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos...8 to
12 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches.
Eastern and Central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Southern Haiti...1 to 4 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas,
the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican
Republic, and they should start affecting portions of the southeast
coast of the United States later today and tonight.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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