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ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate and the eye is no longer observed on conventional imagery, but it is hidden under the cirrus canopy as revealed by a 1206 UTC SSMIS pass. The convection continues to be concentrated near the center, and the outflow is fair. Dvorak objective numbers from CIMMS and estimates from TAFB and SAB support a lower intensity of 75 kt. There are no obvious reasons why Lester should continue to weaken. The environment, at least for the next few days, does not appear to be detrimental for Lester to intensify, other than perhaps a small decrease in the SSTs. Given these factors, the NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity during the next 4 days with some weakening thereafter when Lester eventually encounters drier air. This forecast is consistent with the intensity consensus model. Lester is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. The track forecast is a little more straightforward since the hurricane is embedded within a deep layer of easterly flow associated with a persistent subtropical ridge across the Pacific. By the end of the forecast period, Lester will likely turn west-northwest toward a weakness inf the ridge. Track guidance is tightly packed, and the NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, and does not deviate much from the previous NHC prediction FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 18.1N 123.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 18.2N 125.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 18.3N 128.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 18.5N 131.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 18.5N 134.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 18.5N 138.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 18.5N 143.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 19.5N 148.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN