ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
300 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016

...JAVIER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 106.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula from La Paz southward and westward to Santa Fe,
including Cabo San Lucas, and issued a Tropical Storm Watch north
of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes
* Southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz
southward and westward to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
*Southern portion of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa
Fe to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours
for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 106.6 West.  Javier is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight, and this motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should
pass offshore of the southwest coast of Mexico today, and approach
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over western or coastal parts of the Mexican states of
Colima, Jalisco, Michoacan, Nayarit and the southern part of Baja
California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
through Tuesday morning.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico in the warning area, and should continue
for the next few hours.  Tropical storm conditions are expected over
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula within the
warning area by Monday night  Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area over the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN