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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
800 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2016

Celia has continued to maintain a small area of deep convection
this morning, however recent microwave imagery shows that the area
of cold cloud tops has become separated from the low-level
center due to some southwesterly shear.  Dvorak current intensity
numbers of T3.0 from both TAFB and SAB and the earlier ASCAT data
support keeping an initial wind speed of 45 kt.  The remaining
convection should gradually decrease in coverage while Celia
moves over SSTs around 24C during the next day or so.  This should
result in weakening, and Celia is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone in 24 to 36 hours.  After that time, the
cyclone will be moving over slightly warmer SSTs, but moderate
to strong westerly shear should prevent regeneration.  A tight
pressure gradient between the post-tropical cyclone and a strong
high pressure area to the north will likely help maintain winds
of around 30 kt with the system for several days.

Recent microwave fixes indicate that Celia is moving west-
northwestward, or 295/10 kt.  The cyclone should continue moving
west-northwestward today, but is forecast to turn westward on
Friday as it becomes a shallow system and is steered by the
low-level easterly flow.  The NHC forecast track is close to the
GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and the multi-model consensus, which are
all in fairly close agreement.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 20.8N 136.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 21.4N 138.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 21.7N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 22.0N 143.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1200Z 22.3N 145.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1200Z 23.0N 149.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1200Z 23.7N 154.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1200Z 24.5N 160.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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