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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 03 2016

Although Agatha still has a tight circulation, the overall
convective pattern has lost some organization during the last
several hours.  The initial intensity has been lowered a little to
35 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT
estimates from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.  Agatha is
currently over cool 25 deg C waters and is embedded in a stable air
mass, as evident by the field of stratocumulus clouds over the
western half of the circulation. These unfavorable conditions,
combined with a notable increase in southwesterly shear during the
next day or so, should cause Agatha to weaken to a remnant low in
about 36 hours, or perhaps sooner. The remnant low is forecast to
dissipate in about 4 days.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt while
being steered by a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico.  The
weakening system is expected to gradually turn westward during the
next couple of days as it becomes a shallower cyclone and is mainly
steered by the low-level trade wind flow.  The NHC track forecast is
nudged a little to the south of the previous one and lies very close
to the multi-model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 18.0N 125.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 18.4N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 18.8N 129.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 18.9N 131.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 18.8N 133.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z 18.5N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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