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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 03 2016

Although the low-cloud circulation is well defined, the coverage of
deep convection associated with Agatha has diminished today.  The
maximum winds are estimated to be near 40 kt, which is a blend of
Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The cyclone
will be moving through an environment of increasing southwesterly
shear, drier mid-level air, and cooling SSTs.  These factors should
cause weakening, and Agatha is expected to degenerate into a remnant
low in 48 hours, or sooner.  The official intensity forecast is
close to the latest LGEM guidance.

The cyclone's estimated motion, 285/12 kt, hasn't changed much from
earlier today.  The track forecast reasoning remains about the same
as well.  Agatha is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north
but as the cyclone weakens and becomes shallower, it should move
more westward within the low-level tradewind flow. The official
track forecast is similar to the previous one, and about in the
middle of the dynamical track guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 17.7N 125.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 18.1N 126.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 18.7N 128.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 19.1N 130.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 19.2N 132.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z 19.0N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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