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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
1000 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

...OTTO STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SAN ANDRES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 79.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
San Andres island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Providencia Island should
monitor the progress of Otto.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otto was
located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 79.1 West. Otto has
been drifting southward near 2 mph (4 km/h) during the past few
hours.  Little motion is expected overnight, but a slow westward
motion is foreast to begin on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Strengthening is expected during the next 48
hours, and Otto is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday or
Tuesday night.

Otto is a small tropical cyclone.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce
rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over San Andres and
Providencia islands, and portions of central and western Panama
and southeastern Costa Rica through Wednesday, with isolated totals
upwards of 10 to 15 inches across the higher terrain of Central
America. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides. Additional heavy rainfall may move into portions of
Costa Rica Wednesday night into Thursday as the system approaches
the coast.
-
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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