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BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATER TONIGHT
AS MATTHEW MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast
north of Cape Lookout to Duck, including the Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds.

All warnings are discontinued west of Little River Inlet on the
South Carolina-North Carolina border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 76.5 West. Matthew is
moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue tonight.  An eastward motion is
expected Sunday night and Monday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Matthew should move near or south of the coast of North
Carolina tonight and east of the North Carolina coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast tonight, although
Matthew could become a post-tropical cyclone later tonight.
Weakening is expected Sunday and Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly
to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).  A wind gust to 81 mph
(130 km/h) was recently reported by a private weather station at
Federal Point, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on a combination of
aircraft and surface data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the hurricane warning area tonight and then subside
during the day on Sunday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina later tonight and
Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected during the
next few hours.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including
portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft

Along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts southwest of Matthew's
center, inundation caused by Matthew's storm surge will slowly
recede today.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the coast from Murrells Inlet, South Carolina to Salvo,
North Carolina including portions of the Pamlico Sound.  There is
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours from Salvo to Duck, North Carolina including portions of the
Albemarle Sound. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches from northeast South Carolina into northeast North
Carolina and southeast Virginia, with possible isolated totals of 20
inches possible. This rainfall is producing record-breaking flooding
over portions of eastern North Carolina, and it may result in
life-threatening flooding and flash flooding elsewhere across the
region.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of
the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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