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HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS MATTHEW STRENGTHENING NEAR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound,
Georgia, and the Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to
South Santee River, South Carolina.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
* North of Golden Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River South Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 77.1 West. Matthew is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected tonight. On the forecast track, the eye
of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and New Providence in the
northwestern Bahamas early this morning, then pass near Grand Bahama
Island late today, and move very close to the east coast of the
Florida peninsula tonight through Friday night.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional
strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Matthew is
forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as it approaches the east
coast of Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 944 mb (27.88 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas
and spread into the northwestern Bahamas today. Winds will
gradually diminish over the southeastern Bahamas this morning.
Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward
within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are first expected in Florida by late this morning.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina by early Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible on Friday night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area on the Florida Gulf Coast beginning later today.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...
Central and Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River, including portions of the St.
Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Savannah River to South Santee River...3 to 5 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast and Georgia coast from Deerfield Beach to Altamaha Sound.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of Altamaha Sound to South Santee
River. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.
RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated totals of 15 inches
Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina....4 to
8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches
The Florida Keys...1 to 3 inches, isolated totals of 5 inches
Eastern Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 20 inches
Central Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 8 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...less than one additional inch, isolated
storm-totals of 8 inches
Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central
and eastern Cuba.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.