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HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016
...EYE OF MATTHEW MOVING NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Warning has been issued north of the Flagler/Volusia
county line to Fernandina Beach, Florida.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued north of Savannah River to Edisto
Beach, South Carolina.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
* North of Golden Beach to Fernandina Beach
* Lake Okeechobee
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 76.4 West. Matthew is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight and Thursday. A turn toward
the north-northwest is expected Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and
Nassau overnight, then very near the east coast of the Florida
peninsula Thursday night through Friday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected during the next
24-36 hours, and Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane
as it approaches Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas
and spread into the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Thursday.
Winds will gradually diminish over the southeastern Bahamas tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late Thursday and will spread northward
Thursday night and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first
expected in Florida by early Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
Georgia and South Carolina by late Friday, with tropical storm
conditions possible on Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area on the Florida Gulf Coast on Thursday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River...5 to 8 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast from Deerfield Beach to Fernandina Beach.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.
RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:
Eastern Cuba...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Central Cuba...3 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Coastal eastern Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central
and eastern Cuba.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.