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HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...
...NOAA BUOY REPORTS MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 943 MB IN THE EYE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 74.9W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San
Salvador, and Cat Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 74.9 West. Matthew is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A general northward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through
Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti tonight, and eastern
Cuba on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from NOAA
buoy 42058 is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
tonight, and eastern Cuba Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti later today and eastern
Cuba tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.  Tropical storm conditions are expected along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
beginning today.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to
reach the southeastern Bahamas early Tuesday with hurricane
conditions expected by late Tuesday.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
Tuesday night with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm
watch area in the Dominican Republic by late today.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches across southern Haiti and the southwestern portion
of the Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of
40 inches.  Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti, total rain
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches.  Across eastern Jamaica, total
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12
inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
8 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Lower amounts are expected across the northeastern section of Haiti
and the Dominican Republic, with amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches
with isolated amounts around 5 inches.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
Central and southeastern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba,
and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi

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