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TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  30.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  30.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  30.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.2N  31.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N  33.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.2N  35.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.1N  36.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.7N  39.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 24.5N  41.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 28.3N  43.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N  30.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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