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BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARTY ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015
400 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 102.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas and a
Tropical Storm Warning from Acapulco to east of Tecpan de Galeana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to east of Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* west of Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12-24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next
24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marty was located
near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 102.1 West. Marty is moving
toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A decrease in forward
speed is expected tonight, with a turn to the north forecast
on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Marty is
expected to be near but just offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico Tuesday through Wednesday. However, only a small deviation
to the right of the forecast track would bring the center onshore.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday,
but Marty is expected to be near hurricane strength while it
approaches the coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by early Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area by midday Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area late on
Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Marty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 6 to 12
inches over the Mexican state of Guerrero and 2 to 5 inches over
the state of Michoacan through Thursday.  Isolated amounts of
20 inches are possible in Guerrero from the Sierra Madre del Sur
mountains toward the coast. These rains are expected to produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore flow. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Marty are affecting portions of the coast
of southern Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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