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Hurricane CARLOS


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BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...CARLOS PRODUCING 90-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 104.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Carlos was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 104.4 West.  Carlos is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday night.  A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast by Thursday.  On the forecast track,
Carlos should move parallel to and just offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico over the next couple of days.  However, only a small
deviation to the northeast of the forecast track would bring the
center of Carlos near the coast.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Carlos could remain a hurricane through Wednesday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft was 984 mb
(29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through Wednesday night.  Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area through Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican
states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango,
and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible
through Thursday morning.  Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches
are also possible.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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