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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...CARLOS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 102.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
east of Lazaro Cardenas, and has replaced the Hurricane Warning with
a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 102.5 West. Carlos is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn
toward the northwest on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, Carlos
will move parallel to the southern coast of Mexico over the next day
or two.  However, only a small deviation to the north of the
forecast track would bring the center of Carlos closer to the coast.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. A United States Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
currently en route to provide a better estimate of the cyclone's
intensity. Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours
and Carlos is forecast to become a hurricane again by early Tuesday.

Carlos is small cyclone.  Tropical-storm-force winds only extend
outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane
watch area by Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and
maximum totals of 15 inches possible.  These rains may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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