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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...CARLOS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 100.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
east of Acapulco.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. Carlos is
moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn toward the
west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. However, some restrengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Carlos is expected to become a hurricane
again by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area today, and Acapulco recently reported a gust to
43 mph (69 km/h).  Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within
the hurricane warning area on Monday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area Monday night or early
Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states
of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Tuesday with
maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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