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HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch west of Punta
San Telmo to Manzanillo.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area within 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 100.1 West. Carlos is
drifting toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). Carlos is
expected to turn toward the northwest later tonight. A west-
northwest to northwest motion at an increasing forward speed is
expected late Sunday into Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of Carlos is expected to approach the coast of southwestern Mexico
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area by early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
late on Monday.
RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce 6-10 inches of rain across
the southwestern coast of Mexico through Tuesday with maximum
totals of 15 inches possible. The states of Mexico affected
include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of higher terrain.
SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.