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BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 100.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Lazaro
Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana and a Tropical Storm Warning from
east of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to west of Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 100.0 West. Carlos is drifting
toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). Carlos is expected to move
turn toward the northwest by early Sunday.  A west-northwest to
northwest motion at an increasing forward speed is expected late
Sunday into Monday the next day or two.  On the forecast track, the
center of Carlos is expected to approach the coast of southwestern
Mexico late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area by early Sunday.  Hurricane conditions
are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
late on Monday.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across
the southwestern coast of Mexico through Tuesday with locally
higher amounts around 6 inches.  The states of Mexico affected
include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next few days.  These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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