Parts of the U.S. Government are closed. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown. For critical weather information, please visit www.weather.gov. To learn more, see www.commerce.gov.
Tropical Storm BLANCA
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015 400 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2015 Blanca continues to gradually organize, and satellite imagery shows a developing CDO and numerous banding features. The initial intensity has been raised to 40 kt based on a recent ASCAT-B pass and a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Steady if not rapid intensification is expected during the next couple of days while the shear is forecast to decrease over the cyclone. In fact the SHIPS RI index has the highest probabilities that I've seen, including an almost 90 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in 24 hours. However, the regional hurricane models continue to be much less bullish. The NHC official forecast continues to be closest to the SHIPS model and shows Blanca becoming a hurricane on Tuesday and nearing major hurricane intensity in 48 hours. It is possible that the rate of intensification could be even faster than indicated here. Some weakening is expected by day 5 as the cyclone begins to encounter cooler waters accompanied by an increase in shear. Blanca may have drifted a bit eastward over the past few hours, but the initial motion estimate is stationary. Little net motion is forecast during the next 72 hours while the steering currents remain weak. At days 4 and 5 a northwestward track is expected to begin as a ridge builds to the northeast of Blanca over northern Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one during the first 72 hours and has been adjusted eastward at days 4-5 following the trend of the latest multi-model consensus. Blanca is expected to remain well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the forecast period. However, some rainbands on the outer periphery of the circulation could affect portions of the coast during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 13.3N 103.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 13.4N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 13.3N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 13.1N 104.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 12.8N 104.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 13.2N 105.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 16.0N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 19.0N 109.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan NNNN