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HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE JOAQUIN MEANDERING
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF CLARENCE TOWN LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and
* Andros Island
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Joaquin. A
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch may be required on Friday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 74.6 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected on Friday, and a faster motion toward the north or
north-northeast is expected Friday night and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the core of strongest winds of Joaquin will move
near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and pass near
or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible tonight and
Friday, with some fluctuations in intensity possible Friday night
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 935 mb (27.61 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions
of the central and southeastern Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane
conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas
tonight and Friday. Tropical storm conditions will affect other
portions of the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos
Islands through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
over portions of eastern Cuba through Friday morning.
STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will
raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide
levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm
surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the
remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 12 to 18 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum
amounts of 25 inches. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are
expected over the southeastern Bahamas, with 2 to 4 inches over the
northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening
flash floods. Outer rain bands of Joaquin may affect portions of
eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands through Friday.
SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States tonight and spread
northward through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Regardless of
Joaquin's track, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and
large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant
beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.