Tropical Storm VANCE

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VANCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
1000 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014

...VANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM PST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 107.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM PST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST.  VANCE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF VANCE OR ITS REMNANTS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND VANCE IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE COMBINATION OF VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER
THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 AM PST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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