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Tropical Storm VANCE


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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
100 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014

...VANCE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 108.6W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. VANCE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF VANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR
OR OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA
ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND VANCE COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE COMBINATION OF VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER
THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...400 PM PST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 PM PST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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