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Hurricane VANCE


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BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014

...VANCE NOT WEAKENING YET....


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 110.8W
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
VANCE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT...AND
STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF
SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 PM PST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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