Hurricane VANCE

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HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0300 UTC MON NOV 03 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 109.6W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN   5 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 109.6W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.2N 110.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.7N 110.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 108.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.5N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 109.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA


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