Hurricane VANCE

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HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
700 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014

Satellite images show that Vance has continued to strengthen this
morning.  The cyclone has a cold cloud-topped CDO, with some
overshooting tops near the center, surrounded by banding features.
Objective ADT estimates from UW/CIMSS now support an intensity of 70
kt, which makes the system a hurricane.  Vance has fairly strong
upper-level outflow over all but the eastern portion of the
circulation.  Additional strengthening is likely during the next 24
hours, and the official intensity forecast is near the high end of
the numerical guidance in the short term.  By 36 hours, the
dynamical guidance shows a large increase in southwesterly shear due
to strong upper-level winds north of 15N latitude, and this should
halt any additional strengthening.  Vance is expected to weaken
rapidly on days 2 and 3 of the forecast period, and is likely to
degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by day 4.  This is
similar to the previous official wind speed forecast.

Latest center fixes indicate that the hurricane is now moving
northwestward, or 310/13 kt.  Vance is expected to round the
western periphery of a mid-level ridge and turn northward to
north-northeastward toward a trough over the southwestern United
States during the next couple of days.  By late in the forecast
period, the cyclone is likely to become a shallow system that will
turn to the left within the weaker low-level flow.  The NHC track
forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 11.9N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 13.1N 108.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 14.8N 110.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 17.8N 110.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 20.0N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z 22.5N 111.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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